Suchergebnisse

THIS RESEARCH EXAMINES THE EFFECTS OF ELECTION CALENDARS AND BALLOT FORMS ON VOTER TURNOUT. THE BALLOT ATTRACTIVENESS HYPOTHESIS PREDICTS THAT CONCURRENT SENATORIAL AND GUBERNATORIAL RACES ON A PRESIDENTIAL-YEAR BALLOT INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT CITIZENS WILL VOTE. THE EVIDENCE IN 1980 IS THAT THIS HYPOTHESIS IS TRUE WITH RESPECT TO GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS. THE ELECTION FREQUENCY HYPOTHESIS PREDICTS THAT THE MORE FREQUENTLY ELECTIONS ARE SCHEDULED, THE LESS LIKELY IT IS THAT CITIZENS WILL VOTE IN ANY OF THEM. PRESIDENTIAL AND STATE PRIMARIES ARE A MAJOR SOURCE OF FREQUENT ELECTIONS. IN 1980, PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES, IN PARTICULAR THOSE INSTITUTED SINCE 1968, DID DEPRESS TURNOUT. RUNOFF PRIMARIES DEPRESSED TURNOUT AS WELL. STATE PRIMARIES HELD SEPARATELY FROM PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES DID NOT DEPRESS TURNOUT BY AN ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. THESE FINDINGS ARE BASED ON VALIDATED TURNOUT IN THE 1980 CPS ELECTION STUDY.

THIS PAPER PRESENTS TWO PERSPECTIVES ON A FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE OF ELECTIONS AS MECHANISMS OF DEMOCRATIC ACCOUNTABILITY. ONE IS THE INTERELCTION FLOATING VOTER HYPOTHESIS, WHICH IMPLIES THAT IT IS THE LEAST INFORMENT SEGMENT OF THE ELECTORATE THAT CONTRIBUTES MOST TO ELECTORAL CHANGE. THE SECOND PERSPECTIVE IS FROM V.O. KEY'S ARGUMENT VOTE SWITCHING IS ROOTED IN RATIONAL POLICY CONCERNS.

THIS PAPER IS AN ANALYSIS OF TWO RATIONAL CHOICE THEORIES OF ELECTIONS. ANTHONY DOWNS AND STANLEY KELLEY'S THEORIES YIELD COMPLEMENTARY INTERPRETATIONS OF THE 1984 U. S. ELECTION. REAGAN'S VICTORY WAS BASED ON BOTH PROSPECTIVE AND RETROSPECTIVE JUDGMENTS AS WELL AS ON CANDIDATE AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS. REAGAN WON THAT ELEMENT OF AN INCUMBENT'S REELECTION THAT IS A REFERENDUM ON HIS PERFORMANCE AS PRESIDENT. HOWEVER, PEOPLE ALSO VOTED ON THE BASIS OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY PREFERENCES FOR THE SECOND TERM. ON THESE ISSUES VOTERS PREFERRED MONDALE AS MUCH AS REAGAN. REAGAN'S VICTORY OWED REMARKABLY LITTLE TO HIS CONSERVATIVE AGENDA AND TO A WARM REGARD FOR HIS PERSONAL QUALITIES AS A LEADER. HIS LANDSLIDE WAS DECEPTIVE. THE TWO REAGAN VICTORIES WERE AMONG THE WEAKEST OF THE SIX LANDSLIDES OF THE POSTWAR PERIOD BY KELLEY'S TEST OF DECISIVENESS. THE REAGAN ELECTIONS HAVE NOT SET THE UNITED STATES ON THE COURSE OF A LONG-TERM CONSERVATIVE AGENDA IN EITHER DOMESTIC OR FOREIGN AFFAIRS.